Roulette

In recent years, my wife and I have been playing roulette in a casino every New Year's Eve. So also last week on December 31st, 2024. For years I have been playing the same system, and I have never lost so far.

The system is simple, but it requires patience, perseverance and discipline.

As soon as the same color comes up twice in a row, I bet 10 EUR on the other color. 

If I win, I take the winnings and wait until the same color comes up twice in a row, and then bet on the other color again. 

If I lose, I stick with the color and double the bet to 20 EUR. If I win, I take the winnings and wait again until the same color comes up twice in a row. However, if I lose the second time in a row, I still stick with the same color and double the bet again to 40 EUR ... 

I do this until I win.

This year, a croupier apparently recognized my system and approached me about it. He said my "progression game" was a dangerous system, because every game has the same probability of either color coming up. This statement surprised me a lot. While it is true that each game has the same probability for a color, namely 16/37 (= 0.432). But my system of doubling the stakes on the same color makes it a compound game where the probabilities are multiplied.

Example: The probability that, for example, the same color comes up eight times in a row is (16/37)^8 = 0.0031. This means that with a fair roulette you have to play 319 times for this to happen once. - So it happens rather rarely.

I would have expected a croupier to come up with arguments based on probability calculations, but in this case, nothing.

Of course, my system carries the risk of losing everything if I run out of money or reach the table limit. And of course you need "luck" to win at roulette. You can't win permanently if you play 10,000 games with a fair roulette, for example.

However, my system has worked quite well for me so far. Not to mention the fun of watching other people play roulette.

#Roulette #Groupier #probabilities 

#SundayThoughts 

FrankSchwab.de