In recent years, my wife and I have been playing roulette in a casino every New Year's Eve. So also last week on December 31st, 2024. For years I have been playing the same system, and I have never lost so far.

The system is simple, but it requires patience, perseverance and discipline.

As soon as the same color comes up twice in a row, I bet 10 EUR on the other color. 

If I win, I take the winnings and wait until the same color comes up twice in a row, and then bet on the other color again. 

If I lose, I stick with the color and double the bet to 20 EUR. If I win, I take the winnings and wait again until the same color comes up twice in a row. However, if I lose the second time in a row, I still stick with the same color and double the bet again to 40 EUR ... 

I do this until I win.

This year, a croupier apparently recognized my system and approached me about it. He said my "progression game" was a dangerous system, because every game has the same probability of either color coming up. This statement surprised me a lot. While it is true that each game has the same probability for a color, namely 16/37 (= 0.432). But my system of doubling the stakes on the same color makes it a compound game where the probabilities are multiplied.

Example: The probability that, for example, the same color comes up eight times in a row is (16/37)^8 = 0.0031. This means that with a fair roulette you have to play 319 times for this to happen once. - So it happens rather rarely.

I would have expected a croupier to come up with arguments based on probability calculations, but in this case, nothing.

Of course, my system carries the risk of losing everything if I run out of money or reach the table limit. And of course you need "luck" to win at roulette. You can't win permanently if you play 10,000 games with a fair roulette, for example.

However, my system has worked quite well for me so far. Not to mention the fun of watching other people play roulette.

#Roulette #Groupier #probabilities 

#SundayThoughts 

FrankSchwab.de

The European project stands at a crossroads. While nationalism and internal divisions threaten its very foundation, the need for a united Europe has never been greater. In a world of rising global powers and complex challenges, a fragmented Europe risks becoming irrelevant. Only through deeper integration can the continent maintain its influence, ensure its security, and guarantee its prosperity.

However, this integration must be smart and efficient. The call for "more Europe" should not be a call for "more bureaucracy." The European Union's institutions must become leaner and more focused, shedding unnecessary red tape that stifles innovation and alienates citizens. The goal should be to create a common market that is truly free, fair, and competitive, with harmonized regulations that promote growth and opportunity for all member states.

This means daring to envision a Europe with a unified financial market, a common tax system, and a shared economic policy. It means establishing a European police force capable of effectively tackling cross-border crime and terrorism, and building a common military that can safeguard the continent's interests and values. Such ambitious steps would not only streamline governance but also foster a stronger sense of European identity and solidarity.

The future of Europe hinges on striking the right balance. We need more integration in areas crucial for our collective strength and security, but significantly less bureaucracy that hinders progress and undermines public trust. By embracing this approach, we can build a Europe that is both powerful and prosperous, a Europe that truly serves the needs and aspirations of its citizens.

#Europe 

#SundayThoughts 

I believe in the power of "perception is reality." It's a tool that can be wielded to shape our experiences, fostering positivity, resilience, and personal growth. By consciously choosing our focus and interpretations, we can influence reality. 

However, this power comes with limitations and potential dangers. Our perceptions, while influential, don't always reflect objective truth. Clinging to a distorted view can blind us to reality, leading to misjudgments and missed opportunities. Furthermore, manipulating perception for self-serving purposes can be harmful, creating illusions that ultimately crumble.

The key lies in balancing the empowering potential of perception with a grounded understanding of its limitations, using it as a tool for self-improvement while remaining open to reality's complexities.

#perception #reality #complexity 

#SundayThoughts 

FrankSchwab.de

My time as CEO of Fidor Solutions (2013-2015) was one of the most exciting times of my professional life. I learned a great deal about the dynamic banking market, agile development, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, Bitcoin enthusiasts, Ripple founders, German regulators and regulations, expansion to the UK and Russia, and had hundreds of other unique experiences. This, combined with my 20+ year career at Deutsche Bank, forms the foundation of my current work as a professional supervisory board member and strategic advisor.

However, one lesson is probably the most relevant, and I still apply it daily:

"Inspect, not expect."

Matthias Kröner, the founder and CEO of Fidor Bank, told me this when one of our implementations did not deliver as planned. It took me some time to understand, but he is sooo right. We often take practices for granted and assume that people will adhere to them. While we must trust, we also need to check whether things are done as agreed upon and expected.

It is good practice for a supervisory board member to undertake deep dives and inspections from time to time.

#boardmember #boardofdirectors 

#SundayThoughts 

At the age of 27, I was promoted to project manager, tasked with delivering a system for selling structured currency products across German bank offices. Despite my banking experience and familiarity with these products, I had never managed a software project of this scale, let alone one with such critical deadlines: delivering 21 products across 24 offices within 12 months. To make matters worse, the project had been stalled for three years with no results.

Long story short, our small team of programmers delivered everything on time and within nine months. I owe a huge debt of gratitude to Steve McConnell and his "Software Project Survival Guide" – it was instrumental to our success. The book's key concepts, which I'll summarize briefly, continue to guide me even today in my role as a supervisory board member for several financial institutions.

"Software Project Survival Guide" emphasizes meticulous planning and execution as the cornerstones of successful software projects. It advocates for clearly defining project scope, objectives, and deliverables from the outset, ensuring everyone understands the project's goals and user needs. The book stresses proactive risk management, urging teams to identify potential problems early and develop mitigation strategies. Thorough project planning, involving realistic scheduling, budgeting, and task breakdown, is crucial. Continuous project tracking, using metrics to monitor progress and identify deviations, enables timely corrective action. Maintaining high quality through reviews, testing, and defect tracking is essential. Open and effective communication among stakeholders, including regular status meetings and clear documentation, ensures everyone stays informed. Finally, the book highlights the importance of managing changes effectively, implementing a formal process for evaluating and approving modifications to scope, requirements, or schedules.

#SundayThoughts 

#ProjectManagement 

http://www.FrankSchwab.de