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The four seasons of cryptocurrencies

Summary:  In the past few weeks, reports about the end of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have increased. It looks like that the history of crypto currency market capitalization can be divided into 4 seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter. Following the last two cycles, one would now expect a fifth crypto winter lasting many months with a minimum market capitalization of USD 200 billion. But this time the upcoming crypto winter 2021 could be short-lived. 


It's that time again. In the past few days and weeks, reports about the end of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have increased. - Now for the fifth time - after June 2011 (cycle 1), April 2013 (cycle 2), December 2013 (cycle 3) and January 2018 (cycle 4).


The following perspectives and thoughts on the past two cycles (3 and 4) and the current fifth cycle:


Obviously, the course of the market capitalization of the fledgling cryptocurrency and blockchain industry repeats itself. Since the media repeatedly talk about the crypto winter, I ask myself several questions:


  • Are there also the crypto seasons spring, summer and autumn?
  • If so, how do they differ and how long do they last?


One try. What can be observed:





Cycle 3 - 2.5 years from May 2013 to Dec 2016
  • The six-month crypto spring May to Oct 2013 showed a stable market capitalization of USD 2.5 billion
  • In the only two-month crypto summer Oct / Nov 2013, the market capitalization quadrupled from USD 2.5 billion to more than USD 10 billion
  • In the two-month crypto fall Dec 2013 / Jan 2014, market capitalization peaked at USD 15 billion, which was six times the crypto spring.
  • The market capitalization of USD 5 billion in the following almost two-year crypto winter 2014/2015 fell to a third of the high of USD 15 billion in the crypto autumn 2013/2014
  • The market capitalization in the crypto winter 2014/2015 was at least USD 5 billion, roughly twice as high as the market capitalization in the crypto spring 2013.
  • In December 2015, market capitalization was back to just under USD 7 billion.



Cycle 4 - 2.25 years from Jan 2017 to March 2019


  • As part of the fourth cycle, a four-month spring can be observed. The 4th spring started with a market capitalization of more than USD 17 billion in Jan 2017 and in May 2017 it already had a fivefold increase in market capitalization with more than USD 90 billion.
  • The six-month summer that followed drove market capitalization as high as USD 650 billion from June 2017 to Dec 2017
  • And at the beginning of the crypto fall (Jan-May 2018) of the 4th cycle, the market capitalization reached more than USD 800 billion in Jan 2018.
  • This was followed by another, now the fourth, crypto winter, which started in June 2018 and after about eight months in Jan 2019 saw market capitalization shrink to USD 100 billion, 1/8 of the high a year earlier.
  • Despite this decline, even in the crypto winter of the fourth cycle, market capitalization remained constant above USD 100 billion and thus well above the market capitalization of spring



Cycle 5 - April 2020 to today


  • We are now in the 5th cycle, which started around April 2020 with a market capitalization of USD 180 billion.
  • In the nine-month spring (April to Dec 2020), a market capitalization of over USD 500 was already achieved in Dec 2020
  • The summer of the fifth cycle can be estimated over a four-month period from Jan to April 2021. At the end of the summer, market capitalization topped USD 2,200 billion for the first time.
  • And in May 2021, market capitalization hit its preliminary high of more than USD 2,500 billion.
  • Since May 2021 we have been in the autumn of the fifth cycle from my point of view.
  • A decline in market capitalization to USD 1,500 billion in May / June 2021 suggests that the fifth crypto winter is imminent

Outlook


Following the last two cycles, one would now expect a fifth crypto winter lasting many months with a minimum market capitalization of USD 200 billion.


But the upcoming crypto winter 2021 could be short-lived this time, because many framework conditions have developed significantly in the last few cycles and the next generation of private and commercial users is in the starting blocks. The maturity level of crypto projects, products, coins and tokens is also increasingly broader and deeper.


The global, financial framework conditions also show signs of change. Whether new FinTech attackers, large platforms or the unbelievably large amounts of new money from the central banks in recent months - traditional banks, financial service providers and FIAT currencies are in a state of upheaval, not least due to negative interest rates and expected inflation.


This opens up the opportunity for cryptocurrencies to establish themselves as digital currencies for a digitized world.


And the steadily increasing wallet and transaction numbers support this thinking.








Published in cryptocurrency, The-four-seasons-of-cryptocurrencies  on 07.06.2021 12:42 Uhr. 0 commentsComment here

2021 - The year of the "Altcoins"

Not the first cryptocurrency/bitcoin hype. Current cryptocurrency hype is mainly driven by bitcoin. 2021 may become the year of the altcoins.

Not the first cryptocurrency/bitcoin hype


The current hype about Bitcoin is not the first. As early as June 2011, April 2013, December 2013 and for the last time in January 2018, Bitcoin, together with many other crypto currencies, also known as Altcoins, reached a worldwide sensation and highs. With a market share of 40% and a price of 20,000 US dollars, the market capitalization of Bitcoin was at its last high of 330 billion US dollars and that of all cryptocurrencies together was 831 billion US dollars.



Current cryptocurrency hype is mainly driven by bitcoin


Right now it's that time again. Bitcoin has been climbing old and new highs for days and weeks. The fifth hype. But compared to the last hype, this time it is mainly Bitcoin that has greatly increased its market capitalization. With a price of more than 30,000 US dollars, Bitcoin has a market capitalization of more than 580 billion US dollars and a market share of 70%. That means the current cryptocurrency hype is mainly driven by Bitcoin.




2021 may become the year of the altcoins


The overall market for altcoins currently does not even reach half of the highs of 2018. Nevertheless, the market volume has increased more than tenfold since then. And meanwhile there are also the first useful applications based on blockchain and its altcoins. So you can assume that 2021 will be the year of the altcoins. Altcoins such as Ethereum, Polkadot, Cardano, Uniswap, Looppring and Nano have already recorded strong growth in the last few days.




Despite all the hype: the cryptocurrency market is still very young, setbacks, price collapses and even total losses of individual altcoins are to be expected, as well as high volatility of Bitcoin itself.

Published in bitcoin,  cryptocurrency,  2021-The-year-of-the-Altcoins  on 05.01.2021 10:47 Uhr. 1 commentComment here

Stock-to-Flow Model (Bitcoin)




Looks like a pretty accurate prediction tool Next stop USD 100,000 for Bitcoin 


Published in bitcoin,  cryptocurrency,  , Stock-to-Flow-Model-(Bitcoin) on 03.01.2021 17:10 Uhr. 0 commentsComment here

8+2 quick cryptocurrency predictions for 2030





#1 Bitcoin is digital gold


#2 Blockchain platforms such as Ethereum, EOS and NEM set standards for programmable money, tokenization and the digitization of assets


#3 The digital yuan is leading the way and more central bank digital currencies are coming


#4 Ripple is an alternative to SWIFT with digital central bank money or XRP in its belly


#5 Litecoin is established as digital silver


#6 DASH occupies a niche in South America as a digital currency


#7 IOTA is the IoT platform for M2M payment transactions and data


#8 Facebook's Diem has a significant market share in global payments


#8+1 There are new tokens that are up more than 10,000 percent


#8+2 DeFi and other blockchain related concepts are established


See also on Slideshare:


https://www2.slideshare.net/ashridge/82-quick-cryptocurrency-predictions-for-2030 

Published in cryptocurrency, bitcoin, ethereum, iota, ripple, 8+2-quick-cryptocurrency-predictions-for-2030 on 02.01.2021 14:10 Uhr. 0 commentsComment here

Definition of Crypto Values: Current Money Laundering Bill of the German Federal Ministry of Finance

For the purpose of this law, crypto-values are digital representations of a value that has not been issued or guaranteed by any central bank or public agency and that does not have the legal status of a currency or money.



One thing is clear: The German Federal Ministry of Finance also assumes that crypto values will establish themselves in the financial, economic and social systems.


Overall, the word crypto appears 45 times on 11 pages in the draft.


Excerpt / Definition:


"For the purpose of this law, crypto-values are digital representations of a value that has not been issued or guaranteed by any central bank or public agency and that does not have the legal status of a currency or money. Crypto values are values that are accepted or used as investment or currency by natural or legal persons by agreement or actual practice, and that can be transferred, stored and traded electronically "


(Page 38)


Links


https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Gesetzestexte/Gesetze_Gesetzesvorhaben/Abteilungen/Abteilung_VII/19_Legislaturperiode/2019-05-24-Gesetz-4-EU-Geldwaescherichtlinie/0-Gesetz.html


Respective PDF


https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Gesetzestexte/Gesetze_Gesetzesvorhaben/Abteilungen/Abteilung_VII/19_Legislaturperiode/2019-05-24-Gesetz-4-EU-Geldwaescherichtlinie/1-Referentenentwurf.pdf;jsessionid=461EFAB0C52AED878D0E182B92D8CF06?__blob=publicationFile&v=4

Published in cryptocurrency, Definition-of-Crypto-Values-by-the-German-Federal-Ministry-of-Finance on 06.06.2019 9:34 Uhr. 0 commentsComment here

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